Weather Forecast (07/08/21)
Temperatures were well above average during the period of June 30 through July 6 across the region (Figure 1). Certainly not all locations, but several NDAWN (North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network) stations recorded a high temperature at or above 90° for the first five days of July. This forecast period will start off cool, with temperatures expected to slowly raise to average or above average Sunday into early next week.
An upper air disturbance brought rain from southwestern to northeastern North Dakota on Saturday, July 3. It moved into northeastern North Dakota on Saturday afternoon and with help from the peak heating of the day, some significant rains fell in that region. Most other locations recorded rain from the cold front that past through the Northern Plains on Monday into Tuesday (July 5-6). Total rain from July 1 through 10:44 AM on July 7, 2021 can found in Figure 2.
This forecasting period looks to have a few rain opportunities. Today (Thursday) and Friday the best chances appear to be in western North Dakota with those storms potentially moving into parts of central to southeastern North Dakota. Another period of potential thunderstorms looks to be early next week when an upper air disturbance moves through the region. As has been the case with most of our rain events this summer, odds are there will be “winners and losers” when it comes to amounts with probably some locations being missed. Because western North Dakota looks to be having slightly better odds of rain, western and parts of central North Dakota look to be recording the highest number of hours with relative humidity (RH) above 85% in the next 7 days. My forecasted number of hours with high RH can be found in Figure 3.
The projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 50°, 44° and 32° for the period of July 8 through July 14, 2021 can be found in Figure 4. This period is expected to record fewer GDDs than what was recorded during the first week of July.
Using May 1 as a planting date, the accumulated growing degree days for wheat (base temperature 32°) is given in Figure 5. You can calculate wheat growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html
Using May 10 as a planting date, the accumulated growing degree days for corn (base temperature 50°) is given in Figure 6. You can calculate corn growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html.
Soybeans also use base 50° like corn, but NDAWN has a special tool for soybeans that, based on your planting date and cultivar, can estimate maturity dates based on average temperatures, as well as give you GDDs based on your planting date(s) you set. That tool can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/soybean-growing-degree-days.html
Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN)