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Weather Forecast (07/29/21)

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This past week was another period with well above average temperatures (Figure 1). Most of the region recorded temperatures anywhere from 3° to 6° above average. There were pockets of even warmer temperatures in localized areas. These next 7 days look to be noticably cooler with some locations even recording a high in the 70s on a day or two. Overall, mainly low to mid 80s expected during this forecasting period. In other words, a period of near average temperatures, although, there are signs that well above average temperatures may return in the 6-10 day period just beyond this forecasting period.  I have a feeling that there will be at least a couple of periods of thunderstorms in the next week, but odds favor more missing than hitting which will mean yet another week with many areas struggling with a lack of adequate moisture.

Figure 1. Temperature departures from average at selected NDAWN stations for the period of July 21 through July 27, 2021.png

 

This past week the main rains were across southern North Dakota into west central Minnesota. Most northern areas recorded little or no precipitation in the past week (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Total rainfall for the 168-hour period ending at 10 and 30 AM on July, 28, 2021 at NDAWN weather stations.png

 

Several of you requested that I post rainfall departures from average this growing season. Figure 3 has the departures from average rainfall from May 1 through July 27.

Figure 3. Departure from Normal Rainfall for selected NDAWN stations from May 1, 2021 through July 27, 2021..png

The projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 50°, 44° and 32° for the period of July 29 through August 4, 2021 can be found in Figure 4.  With temperatures near or slightly above average these next 7 days, GDDs will be lower than what was recorded in the past few weeks.

Figure 4. Projected Growing Degree Days, Base 50°, 44° and 32° for the period of July 29 to August 4, 2021.png

 

Using May 1 as a planting date, the accumulated growing degree days for wheat (base temperature 32°) is given in Figure 5. You can calculate wheat growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

Figure 5. Accumulated Growing Degree Days for Wheat (Base 32°) since May 1, 2021.png

Using May 10 as a planting date, the accumulated growing degree days for corn (base temperature 50°) is given in Figure 6. You can calculate corn growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here:  https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html.

 

Figure 6. Accumulated Growing Degree Days for Corn (Base 50°) since May 10, 2021.png

 

Soybeans also use base 50° like corn, but NDAWN has a special tool for soybeans that, based on your planting date and cultivar, can estimate maturity dates based on average temperatures, as well as give you GDDs based on your planting date(s) you set. That tool can be found here:  https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/soybean-growing-degree-days.html

 

Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN)