NDSU economist releases updated Q3 2021 economic forecast for North Dakota

FARGO, N.D., August 10 – The Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise has released an updated Economic Outlook for the North Dakota economy.

The Economic Outlook Quarterly Report uses the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, director of the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise and professor of economics at North Dakota State University.

Here are some key points from the Economic Outlook: Q3 2021 report:

  • North Dakota’s economy shows signs of stagnation and a slowing economic recovery. The North Dakota Forecast Model is predicting declines in gross state product, labor force participation, and total wages and salaries. Despite this, a steady trend for total tax collections is promising.
  • The Fargo and Grand Forks metro areas show positive signs of recovery and growth, specifically in the labor force and housing prices. Projections for Bismarck have moderated since the previous report with most economic indicators expected to remain relatively unchanged.
  • These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends. As a result, unexpected changes in economic conditions, public policy or other factors may disrupt the accuracy of the forecasts.

Read the full report.

“The overall economic outlook for the state had been improving amidst the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the most recent data shows a state economy that is at risk of declining economic growth and a shrinking labor force,” said Jackson.

About the North Dakota Forecast Model

The North Dakota Forecast Model uses historical data and trends to predict future economic outcomes for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment and the housing price index. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model. The model for the Q2 2021 report used data available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve on May 4, 2021.

The views expressed in this report do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.


Kali Christianson, Outreach Specialist
701.231.7790  /  kali.l.christianson@ndsu.edu 



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