November 10, 2014: After the Snow

The much talk about snow potential has definitely arrived and will be impacting areas near and south of I94 in North Dakota and much of South Dakota and central and southern Minnesota.  There is currently a band of snow running across northern South Dakota through central Minnesota.  That band is moving to the east and that is also the areas that will record the most snowfall during the day.  In North Dakota the heaviest snow, in excess of 6 inches will occur right along the border of South Dakota.  The worst of the snow today till be from roughly Aberdeen to Granite Falls, to Willmar to St. Cloud to Cambridge Minnesota.  Near that line would be the most favored areas of 10 inch plus snows.

7:48 AM Radar

7:48 AM Radar

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model takes that snow almost due east and fills it in to the south which is a likely scenario for this event.

HRRR Model for Today

HRRR Model for Today

The snow has or is ending in southwestern North Dakota, but the far southeastern corner of North Dakota will continue to record snowfall, especially through the morning hours.  Much of North Dakota north of Interstate 94 will not receive any snow from this event.  But the area that do receive snow, will in turn experience much colder temperatures this week post the snow.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

 

That storm system (low pressure) is the most notable feature on the 7:00 AM Surface Analysis presented above.  But on the northwestern corner of the map is a strong high pressure system that will be pushing south.  The origin of this air mass was in the arctic and this will eventually plunge much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States into an early taste of winter.  Temperatures in the 10s and 20s for highs are expected for the next 10 days, with low temperatures in the 0s and 10s depending on cloud cover any given morning.

Yet, area with snow cover will on clear nights likely drop to below zero, perhaps as much as the -10s potentially.  Below are the projected lows off the GFS (Global Forecast System) for Thursday and Friday morning.

Global Forecast System projected Thursday AM Lows

Global Forecast System projected Thursday AM Lows

 

Global Forecast System projected lows on Friday Morning

Global Forecast System projected lows on Friday Morning

 

The projected lows on Friday in particular show well the impact snow cover has on low temperatures.  It will need to be clear, but certainly the maps above are within reason based on what I would projected in February (similar day length) given the characteristics of this air mass and the usual snow cover this area will have that time of year.

The large trough that will develop behind this storm is expected to stick around for at least 7-10 days, if not longer.  There appears to be two surges of cold air moving in during the time frame.  There may certainly be some snow showers in such a pattern, but no organized large snow events are expected this week into early next week.  Just a lot of cold air.

500 mb Heights and Anomalies for next 10 days

500 mb Heights and Anomalies for next 10 days

Temperatures are expected to be in the 10 to 15 degree below average range during this spell, with certainly periods and locations with even colder anomalies, especially over the snow pack that is falling today,

Daryl Ritchison

 

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