1/26/15: Arctic Blast Eventually

Another quick moving area of low pressure is currently centered near International Falls.   This low allowed for warmer air to move into North Dakota overnight with wake up temperatures in the 30s.    The warm air associated with these “clippers” sometimes drops a dusting of snow, but this time not much more than flurries fell.  As this low progresses to the east the cold front currently in southern Manitoba will slide to the south.

Morning Surface Analysis

Morning Surface Analysis

The air on the north side of this front is not all that cold for the time of year, so the front’s main influence may be the clouds that will move in to especially eastern North Dakota instead of any rapid temperature drop today.  Overall, any cool air pushing into the region will be offset by normal diurnal temperature changes therefore, temperatures probably remaining fairly stable today, or just rising slightly, meaning wake up temperatures in the 30s will mean highs in the 30s, to the lower part of the 40s where there is no snow cover.  Obviously, either way, a very nice Monday.

Another clipper is expected on Wednesday, meaning tomorrow, ahead of the next clipper, warmer air will move back into the region, albeit cooler than today,  30s will still be very common for high temperatures.  It is Wednesday that a more significant cold front will arrive, yet, because that front does not look to be arriving until later in the day, another day in the 30s looks to be the case.  The cold front on Wednesday will be associated with another fast moving low coming from the prairie provinces of Canada.  There will be a threat of some snow not only with the low but also with the cold front.  It appears this cold front will tap into the colder air in the Arctic meaning colder air arriving for Thursday and Friday.  The air mass in place after the Wednesday in place after Wednesday will only bring temperatures back to seasonal (average) levels for the time of year, but this weekend another cold front will move in from Canada and behind that front well below average temperature potential will exist once again.

Thursday 12:00 AM (Wednesday Night midnight) projected surface map

Thursday 12:00 AM (Wednesday Night midnight) projected surface map

 

Both the Wednesday and the weekend (Saturday) even will come with some wind, but we need some snow for that to be an issue.  Saturday’s event looks to have a bit more potential than Wednesday for any snow of consequence for any blowing and drifting concerns at this time.

But the cold air is going to quite, so today through Wednesday, mild.  Thursday through Saturday average, Sunday through early next week below average with not much moisture foreseen during this stretch, although the two clippers mentioned will have some threat for small accumulations.

Daryl Ritchison

 

 

Categories: Forecast Tags: