1/27/2015: Cold Front Cometh

Temperatures this morning are quite mild with lows in the 20s and 30s.  The Beach, NDAWN (North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network) station was reporting 41 degrees.

Morning Temperatures

Morning Temperatures

 

An area of low pressure currently near the Saskatchewan / Alberta border will be sliding to the south /southeast today.  As it slides to the south in will also bring with it somewhat cooler air, so like yesterday, it will indeed be another very mild day, it already is this morning for the time of year, but temperatures will not climb a lot today.  But some 50s in southwestern ND are expected 40s through central ND and 30s to near 40 in the east.  The wind south, gradually shifting east as that low progresses southward.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

The low pressure center appears to be moving through the area dry.  The low will move to near Omaha by Wednesday afternoon.  But a separate disturbance will move from the Canadian Rockies through southern Canada.  That system will bring with it colder air for Thursday and Friday as well as a threat of some light snow.  Main area that may record more than a dusting would be locations near the US/Canadian border, but like so many of these disturbances this winter, the amount of snow will be quite minimal for most backyards.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015 Surface Projection with 24 hour movement of precip and Low Pressure

Wednesday, January 28, 2015 Surface Projection with 24 hour movement of precip and Low Pressure

 

Although temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be cooler, especially in eastern North Dakota, the truly cold air will continue to reside just to the north and northeast of the state.  It will be yet another fairly weak “clipper” that will probably tap into that colder air that will in turn bring in temperatures below average for much of next week.

Thursday Night/ Friday Morning Temperatures

Thursday Night/ Friday Morning Temperatures

Next week, especially Monday through Thursday temperatures could be 5-10 degrees below average, so a noticeable change from the past 10 days.

850 mb temperature anomolies.  ECMWF (WMO Essential)

850 mb temperature anomolies. ECMWF (WMO Essential)

That transition this weekend looks to be coming on Saturday as a cold front.  The frontal passage looks to be coming in with a good wind and some light snow.  Temperatures falling from north to south across the state during the day.   The day may start off pleasant with deteriorating temperatures and wind during the day.  Although snow amounts look very light, perhaps enough for travel concerns for a while as the wind mixes with the snow fall for reduced visibility and some slick spots, but a major event is not foreseen, just winter coming back for a few days.

Saturday, January 31, 2015, 6 PM Surface map and 6 hour precip

Saturday, January 31, 2015, 6 PM Surface map and 6 hour precip

 

Daryl Ritchison

 

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: Forecast Tags: