6/16/15: Back to Wet

Rain with some embedded thunder will be working across North Dakota, especially south of Highway 2 during the day.  This is the system mentioned last week that that is developing on the downstream trough of a large ridge of high pressure over Alaska.

Ridge trough

500 mb (18,000 feet) Heights and Anomalies this morning

An area of low pressure associated with said trough is currently in Wyoming pushing easterly.  Although cool (dry) high pressure in Minnesota will temporarily keep the precipitation from moving too far east this morning, eventually all of southern North Dakota, South Dakota into a good portion of Minnesota will record rain today.

6:00 AM Surface Analysis

6:00 AM Surface Analysis

Although the eastern part of North Dakota is briefly dry this morning is association with that high pressure, the rain has already moved into southwestern and south central North Dakota and it is pushing east.  It appears locations south of Highway 2 will have the great impact today.

Early AM Radar

Early AM Radar

As an example of the potential for rain today, Hettinger has recorded 1.50 inches through 7:30 AM.  Although clearly not everyone will record that much rainfall, widespread 0.25 to 0.75″ is expected with pockets in the one to two inch range.

Rain through 7:30 AM

Rain through 7:30 AM

The rain is expected to be out of the area tonight leaving Wednesday dry and warmer than today by virtue of some sunshine.  Because of the cloud cover today, high temperatures will only be in the 60s, with some portion of central North Dakota, including Bismarck, perhaps staying in the 50s.

Tuesday Maximums

Tuesday Maximums

With the cool temperatures and rain, likely not a surprise that relative humidity levels (above 85%) will be prevalent for many hours tonight into Wednesday morning.

Relative Humidity at 4:00 PM

Relative Humidity at 4:00 PM

Without rain and at least some sunshine tomorrow the maximums are expected to get back into the 70s for maximums, but another threat of rain appears to be moving back into the area as soon as Thursday night into Friday.  There may be a touch of rain (few showers) as a cold front moves through on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but it looks very spotty if anything falls at all, so in turn, it will be Thursday Night into Friday morning for the next threat of rain.

Wednesday Maximum Projected

Wednesday Maximum Projected

Beyond that event.  There appears to be two waves moving through during the weekend and other wave of rain early next week (around Tuesday), so after a period of relative dryness for many locations in the past 10 days, the next week looks fairly wet once again with warmer and dryer air expected again as we approach the end of June.

Daryl Ritchison

 

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