6/23/15: Northwest Flow

Clear sky for many locations this morning.  Some isolated convection is expected today producing some spotty thunderstorms, but a vast majority of the area will stay dry.

Morning Satellite

Morning Satellite

What storms do flair will generally be in western North Dakota.  But that same disturbance will also bring a wider threat of rain/thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Projected Radar for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Projected Radar for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

 

Another wave will form tomorrow and is expected to be in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota tomorrow late morning through afternoon.

4:00 AM Projected Radar fro Wednesday June 24, 2015

4:00 AM Projected Radar fro Wednesday June 24, 2015

Beyond tomorrow the jetstream will transitions from a nearly zonal (west to east) flow to a more northwesterly flow the rest of the week.

Current Jetstream

Current Jetstream

This transition of a western USA ridge and eastern USA trough looks to be a feature that will have staying power.

Friday, June 26, 7 PM projected Jetstream

Friday, June 26, 7 PM projected Jetstream

 

That western ridge that will likely produce near record heat from Washington to Montana will also allow above average temperatures over North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  Western North Dakota will be under the influence more so than the east, but above average temperatures for all nevertheless.

6-10 Day 850 mb temperatures and anomalies averaged over that 5 day period

6-10 Day 850 mb temperatures and anomalies averaged over that 5 day period

Therefore next week looks to be bringing 80s to eastern North Dakota and upper 80s to mid 90s in the western portion of the state.  Montana could record some 100-105 degree days east of the Rockies.

A northwest flow tends to be a dry pattern for the region, so any thunderstorms (it is summer they will still happen) will tend to be isolated to widely scattered with a tendency not to produce high amounts of moisture.  So overall, a pattern that will be welcomed for crop development.

Daryl Ritchison

 

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