Monday Weather Outlook

An area of low pressure currently centered in central Minnesota will be moving slowly away from the area in the next 24 hours.  It is likely there will be showers on the backside of this low throughout the day.

NGP.fronts

 

There are already showers in northern sections of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.  This should weaken slightly and slowly move to the southeast over the course of the day, meaning, many areas will some some rain today, although additional amounts will average under 0.25″.

radar

High Pressure (see first image above), will be moving into the northern plains behind this area of low pressure bringing cooler, and dry conditions to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Late Wednesday (especially Wednesday night for many) into Thursday looks to be the next threat of precipitation (after today) for North Dakota.  Current pattern would suggest,  Thursday, Saturday and next Tuesday as the three best days for rainfall in the next 10 days.

Today precipitation for the next two events, Thursday and Saturday look to be averaging under 1″ for total precipitation this week.  With thunderstorms, there is always variability, but the overall average looks to be 1″ or less.  More info in this space as those events come closer (that estimated total does not include what will fall today).

North_Dakota.vis

Temperature wise:  With abundant cloud cover expected today (see image above) and cooler air filtering into the area, high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will be common.  The wind will be from the northwest and increase or remain in the 15-30 mph much of the day.  A cool, chilly start to the month of June.  After today, high temperatures will generally be in the 70s, meaning near or slightly below average temperatures can be expected this week into early next week.  In fact the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the 6-10 day period has much of the upper Midwest below average which I would readily agree with, although, I would place the probabilities much higher than the 50% on the graphic below.

610temp.new

June 1-15 average temperatures look to be finishing at least a couple of degrees below average, limiting growing degree days as crops try to catch up from the late plant this year (which of course is still not completed).

Depending on location, overall average precipitation in the next 10 days is around 1 to 1.25″ and discounting thunderstorm variability, I would lean toward most areas being near that average as we start the month of June.

Daryl Ritchison