8/17/15: Slow Warmup

Minimums this morning were generally within a few degrees of 50°.  Some cloudiness this morning, then some fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon with maximums expected in the 70s this afternoon with a N/NW wind at 5-15 mph.

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August 17, 2015 Minimums

An area of low pressure currently in the central Rocky Mountains is expected to lift to the northeast in the next 48 hours, intensify and bring a significant rain to South Dakota and much of Minnesota Tuesday into Wednesday.

North American Model (NAM) 18Z Tuesday August 18, 2015 projected surface analysis and 6 hour rainfall

North American Model (NAM) 18Z Tuesday August 18, 2015 projected surface analysis and 6 hour rainfall

If you ready my Crop and Pest Report from last Thursday  you may recall the mention of how a storm system should develop in the pattern developing once the heat moves out after Saturday.  The storm is forming, but will mostly miss North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, although locations near and south of Interstate 94 in North Dakota and east of Highway 75 should record some rain.  Because our area will be in the cold sector of the storm, mainly rain/showers are expected with the thunderstorms south and east of North Dakota.  There may be some lingering showers/clouds in the Red River Valley early Wednesday morning, otherwise, Wednesday through Friday are looking dry with a slow warm up anticipated.

Maximums on Tuesday are expected to be near 70° or a bit warmer in North Dakota where no rain is expected, but only in the mid to upper 60s in SE North Dakota and points south and east where the rain will be the most widespread.

Tuesday Projected Maximums by WRF-NAM 4 km Guidance

Tuesday Projected Maximums by WRF-NAM 4 km Guidance

The maximums on Wednesday expected to be in the 70s, around 80° on Thursday, 80s on Friday, then another storm system on Saturday will bring in cooler air by Sunday with a threat of rain/thunderstorms in the transition on Saturday.  Sunday through Tuesday of next week appear to be below average for temperatures, with a warmup projected after that period.

Daryl Ritchison

 

 

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