10/2/15: Wet West

There is currently an area of rain in central South Dakota associated with an area of low pressure in the Rocky Mountains.  Because of the counter-clockwise circulation of that low, the rainfall is working generally northward.

radar

Morning Radar

Radar simulation from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh indicates this as well:

Friday Simulated Radar

Friday Simulated Radar

Rainfall from this event per the NAM-WRF guidance suggests around 0.25 inches on average with some localized 0.50 inches or higher totals.  Considering the duration of the event in combination with available atmospheric moisture, this makes sense.

Rain Totals through Sunday, October 4, 2015 @1PM

Rain Totals through Sunday, October 4, 2015 @1PM

 

Eastern North Dakota into Minnesota is expected to remain dry as high pressure in Ontario remains in place and keeps the moisture from moving too far east.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

The rain / clouds will keep temperatures suppressed in western North Dakota, but eastern North Dakota should experience temperatures near seasonal normals the next couple of days (60 to 65), but more 50s in western ND.

Friday PM Temperatures

Friday PM Temperatures

Saturday PM Temperatures

Saturday PM Temperatures

 

Beyond the weekend, early next the rain system that has been expected looks very light at this time, with perhaps another later in the week. meaning eastern ND in particular into western Minnesota should experience mostly good harvest weather in the next several days.

Daryl Ritchison

 

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