10/22/15: Widespread Rain

An area of low pressure currently in the panhandle of Texas/Oklahoma is projected to move to the north in the next 48 hours and bring widespread rain to the northern plains on Friday.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

7:00 AM Surface Analysis

 

The rain will probably begin this evening in southern North Dakota and then continue through the day on Friday, ending in northern and eastern North Dakota sometime on Friday evening.

Possible Radar at 1:00 AM Friday, October 23, 2015

Possible Radar at 1:00 AM Friday, October 23, 2015

 

Approximate ending time of rain band is presented below.

Possible Radar at 10:00 PM Friday, October 23, 2015

Possible Radar at 10:00 PM Friday, October 23, 2015

 

It appears there will be localized 1″+ totals from this event.  More than likely in a narrow band with other locations recording 0.4″ to 0.8″ on average.  Typical rain event will mean widely varying totals.  Below are a couple of different computer simulations as to possible outcomes.  I will emphasize that it will not work out exactly either way, but is presented more as to a rough estimate of the outcome.

NAM-WRF 4 km rain total through 7:00 PM Friday

NAM-WRF 4 km rain total through 7:00 PM Friday

 

GFS Progged Rainfall totals through 7:00 PM Friday

GFS Progged Rainfall totals through 7:00 PM Friday

 

Canadian GEM Guidance Rainfall Totals through 7:00 PM Friday

Canadian GEM Guidance Rainfall Totals through 7:00 PM Friday

 

Three scenarios, three different results.  I would place the narrow 1″ + band in the farther north scenario through eastern ND into northwestern MN.  But all or at least most locations getting enough rain to stop the harvest for at least a couple of days.

Temperatures cooling off noticeably after this storm.  With 40s for maximums on many days and possibly even some upper 30s in spots early next week.  Next threat of rain toward the middle of next week, but a much weaker system.  Therefore, this may be the one “big” rain even for the month in eastern North Dakota, whereas, western North Dakota did record a widespread 0.50″ + even earlier in the month.

Daryl Ritchison

 

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