AMO and Autumns

We have had a string of above average autumns since the turn of the century.  We have had a couple of cool autumns, but a vast majority of been above average.  I get asked a lot about this trend and if it will continue.  Of course, historically, no such seasonal pattern has ever continued and I don’t see why these warmer than average autumn would either.  One of the main reasons for this pattern of warmer autumns can be attributed to the warming waters in the Atlantic that is associated with the long term fluctuations in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.  After 20 years in the warm positive phase, it is now turned colder which often means colder autumns.

Daryl Ritchison

 

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