Mathematics of Smallpox
Smallpox is one of very few
infectious diseases that is certified by World
Health Organization to be eradicated (this happened in 1979). Prior to its
eradication smallpox was a very deadly disease, responsible for about 10% of the death of minors. Daniel Bernoulli (1700-1782)
used mathematics and statistics to argue the advantages of inoculation with
live viruses (which can be considered as a sort of vaccination). This was
probably the first theoretical analysis of an infectious disease by means of a
mathematical model, which will be the subject of my talk.