Fellow: Tong Lin
Advisor: Dr. Zhulu Lin, Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, NDSU
Degree Progress: Ph.D. in Environmental and Conservation Sciences Program, expected graduation in December 2019.

Unconventional oil production at the Bakken Shale of western North Dakota has greatly increased since 2008. Although unconventional oil production uses less water than conventional oil production per unit of energy, the cumulative water needs for unconventional oil production due to multiple drilling and fracturing operations may be locally or temporally significant. However, the average annual 7-day low flows of the nine major streams that supplied water for hydraulic fracking (HF) in western North Dakota had increased during 2008-2014 compared to that of 2000-2007. This was mainly because the region received approximately 20% more precipitation than normal during 2008 to 2014. The increasing HF water demands could be stressful to regional surface water sources when the climate turns to normal or dry in the future. To understand the HF water stress on the regional surface water resources, we will develop an integrated social and ecological model for stream flow simulation. First, we will develop a SWAT model to simulate the hydrological process of Little Muddy River, the most frequently used HF surface water source besides Missouri River in the Bakken shale. Then we will integrate an agent based model with the SWAT model to simulate the changes on discharge of Little Muddy River with predicted HF water use information under different precipitation scenarios.

Project Objectives:

Our proposed research is to address the impact of the increasing HF water use on discharge of Little Muddy River under different precipitation scenarios. Specific objectives include:

1. To simulate hydrological process of Little Muddy River by developing an SWAT model
2. To predict discharge changes of Little Muddy River under different precipitation conditions through integrating SWAT model and an agent-based model.

Progress:

We have obtained and analyzed the DEM, soil, weather and HF water use data on Little Muddy River. We are in the process of developing SWAT model for Little Muddy River. We have developed an agent based model for water depot based water allocation system in western North Dakota. After building the SWAT model, our next step is to integrate SWAT model and agent-based model and run scenario analysis under different precipitation conditions.

Significance:

Our research will help to address the impact of the increasing HF water use on discharge of Little Muddy River and other streams in the region under different precipitation conditions through integration of SWAT model and agent based model. A clear understanding of the coupled human and nature system will help policy and decision makers devise appropriate policy tools to manage the regional water resources for long-term sustainable use.

Research Outcomes:

     Lim, H. S., Lin, Z., Lin, T. and Borders, M. (2018). Using an agent-based model for water resources management in the Bakken region. Journal of Environmental Management (Under review).

     Lin, Z., Lin, T., Lim, S.H. Hove, M.H., and Schuh, W.M. (2018). Impacts of Bakken Shale oil development on regional water uses and supply. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54(1): 225-239. doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12605.

     Lin, T., and Lin, Z. (2017). An agent-based model for groundwater allocation and management at the Bakken shale in western North Dakota (oral presentation). 2017 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, 11 - 15 December, 2017, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA .

     Lim, S., Lin, Z., Borders, M., and Lin, T. (2016). Shale oil production expansion and water-energy nexus in North Dakota: A decentralized agent-based modeling approach. Boston, MA: Proceedings of the 2016 AAEA Annual Meeting.

     Lin, Z., Lin, T., and Lim, S.H. (2015). Groundwater allocation and management at Bakken in western North Dakota. Golden, CO: Proceedings of MODFLOW and More 2015: Modeling a Complex World, R. Maxwell, M. Hill, C. Zheng, and M. Tonkin (eds.).

     Lin, T., Lin, Z., and Lim, S.H., AGU 2015 Fall Meeting, Poster, Developing an agent-based model for the depot-based water allocation system in the Bakken field of western North Dakota, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, CA.

     Lin, T., Borders, M., Lin, Z., and Lim, S.H., North Dakota EPSCoR 2016 State Conference, Poster, Impacts of hydraulic fracturing at Bakken on regional water resources, April 19, 2016, Grand Forks, ND.

     Lin, T., and Lin, Z., 2015 ASABE North Central Intersectional Conference, Oral Presentation, How does oil and gas production in the Bakken impact water use in North Dakota? April 10- 11, 2015, Fargo, ND.