Market Analyst and Trader Expectations Determine Price Responses from USDA Reports

Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist | July/August 2026

The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) often results in crop market price volatility. The August WASDE is significant because the USDA collects updated information on planted acres and projected yields for the major U.S. crops.

In August, the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) begins reporting planted acreage information collected from farm managers enrolled in federal farm programs. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) compares this information with the voluntary survey data collected from farm managers for the Acreage report, which is released at the end of June. These two data sources never result in exactly the same values because some U.S. farmers do not enroll in federal farm programs. However, the FSA planted acreage report provides another reference point to refine the planted and harvested acreage estimates in the August WASDE.

In addition, the August WASDE incorporates crop yield estimates collected directly from farm managers, rather than using the historical trendline yield forecasts. The NASS surveys approximately 14,900 farm managers across the U.S., asking for their estimate of crop yields. The survey is conducted during the last week of July and the first week of August. This information is summarized in the August Production report, and the updated national average yield estimates for the major crops are incorporated into the WASDE.

Private market analysts and traders also prepare their own forecasts for what they believe the USDA WASDE and Production reports will show. Major news agencies usually survey these individuals and organizations and report the average trade estimate, as well as the highest and lowest values, to provide a range estimate.

The assumption is that the average trade estimate of yields, crop production and ending stocks is a good estimate of the expectations embedded in futures market prices. In reality, the average trade estimate is a more important reference point for evaluating price shifts than the USDA July WASDE.

An example may help explain the logic. Let’s assume that spring planting in a key corn-growing region was delayed because of heavy rains and wet field conditions. As a result, private analysts and traders believe the estimated corn planted acreage in the July WASDE is too high and will be reduced in the August WASDE based on the FAS acreage reporting. In addition, a key soybean-growing region has been experiencing hot temperatures and limited rainfall. The analysts believe the national average soybean yield will be reduced below the trendline yield used in the July WASDE. The analysts and traders take positions in the futures market based on their expectations.

If the August WASDE shows lower corn plantings and lower soybean yields, which are similar to analysts’ expectations, futures market prices are unlikely to see large increases because these changes were expected and already reflected in the futures market prices. However, if we believe the change in the production estimates between the July and August WASDE reports, we would be wrong. The expectation for lower production was already priced into the futures market.

The USDA is also very transparent about the accuracy of its production and WASDE forecasts. At the end of each major USDA release, the agency reports a historical summary of how well the specific report predicted the final values.

For example, Table 1 shows the difference between the August WASDE forecasts and the final reported values at the end of the marketing year. Table 1 shows the information from the 2025 August WASDE because the 2026 values were not available at the time of writing.

These statistics suggest that the August WASDE forecasts tend to overestimate wheat production, underestimate corn production and have nearly equal under- and overestimation for soybean production. They also suggest that the August WASDE overestimates wheat ending stocks, has nearly equal under- and overestimates for corn ending stocks and overestimates final soybean ending stocks.

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Aug. 12, 2025.

There can be many reasons why the August WASDE reliability statistics show a “bias,” or tendency to be consistently high or low. In addition, just because last year’s estimates were higher or lower than the final values does not mean this year’s estimates will follow that trend.

The main takeaway is that the USDA WASDE and production estimates become more accurate over time, and anticipating market price changes due to USDA report releases is very difficult.