The Russia-Ukraine War has been impacting global wheat prices
Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Marketing Specialist and Crop Economist | September 2026
The Russia-Ukraine war has escalated, and key grain export terminals have been damaged in both countries. In addition, commercial shipping is being targeted, disrupting grain flows out of the region. Both Ukraine and Russia are major producers and exporters of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower. Restricted grain flows from the region are impacting global wheat prices and shifting wheat supply chains.
Figure 1 shows historical and projected wheat exports for the top seven exporting countries, based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The forecasted 2026/2027 export levels, represented by the dashed line segments, were prepared before the damage to export infrastructure was realized. Notice the significant increase in Russian wheat exports in the past five years.
Figure 2 is a map showing the wheat-producing area surrounding the Black Sea. The Ukrainian port of Odessa and the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Rostov on Don have sustained recent damage due to the expanding war. Industry estimates suggest that Russia exported 46.3 million metric tons of grain from ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, accounting for about 90% of Russia’s total sea-based exports.
The extent of the damage in each of these ports is still being assessed, but multiple grain terminals have halted operations. Three key factors remain unknown: A) how long the attacks will continue, B) how long it will take to repair the damage and bring the port facilities back to capacity and C) the cost of temporarily shipping grain through alternative routes.
Recent reports indicated Russia is attempting to reroute some shipments to smaller Black Sea ports via truck. Russian grain exporters are also reportedly switching shipments to Baltic Sea ports, which also have lower annual handling volumes.
During the interim, global wheat exporters and importers are working to revise their wheat trading strategies and supply chains, and global prices have responded. Recent news reports state that Egyptian wheat buyers are looking for short-term supplies from Australia, Argentina and North America to backfill Russian wheat shipments that will not arrive on time. Asian wheat buyers have also expressed concerns about delays in their Black Sea shipments and may be looking for alternative supplies.
Even though global wheat prices are rising, there are still adequate exportable supplies of wheat. Argentina has finished its wheat harvest, and 2026 total production is above average, after a record-large 2025 wheat crop. Heavy rains were reported during the 2026 harvest, so there may be some quality issues, but the level of damage is unclear.
Australia’s 2026 wheat harvest will begin soon. Wheat production is expected to be lower than the past two years, which were near record levels but close to the long-term average. Australian wheat exports are projected to be similar to those of the U.S.
The European Union wheat production is also lower than last year but close to long-term average levels. Even though French wheat production is below normal, it is not expected to impact total EU wheat export levels. This is partially due to the increased wheat imports from Ukraine.
Last year, Canada had record wheat production and has been a significant competitor to U.S. wheat exports, especially for spring wheat. 2026 Canadian wheat production is projected to be lower than last year, but similar to 2024 levels.
India is the third-largest wheat-producing region in the world, with China being the largest and the EU being the second-largest. Typically, India does not export large volumes of wheat, but has done so when production is high and/or inventory levels are strong. The Indian government recently lifted its ban on wheat exports, which originally went into effect in May 2022. In the 2021/2022 marketing year, before the export ban went into place, India exported 8.0 million metric tons of wheat. This is about half of Ukraine’s 10-year average wheat exports of 17.0 million metric tons.
The full impacts of the damage to Russian and Ukrainian grain export capacity are still being assessed. There is little doubt that global wheat prices will remain volatile and continue to be impacted by new information coming from the Black Sea region.
No one knows how high global wheat prices will go, but farm managers should not become overly optimistic about potential price increases. Marketing plans for wheat should be adjusted, given these new conditions, but current wheat price levels should be viewed as an opportunity to expand wheat sales before the corn and soybean harvest begins.
