NDSU report projects rising export costs for U.S. agriculture under new port fees

A new policy report from the Agricultural Risk Policy Center at NDSU projects significant increases in shipping costs for U.S. agricultural exporters due to new federal port fees targeting Chinese-operated and Chinese-built vessels.

The report, Assessing the Costs to Agricultural Exporters of Section 301 Annex 1 and 2 Fees, analyzes the final determination issued by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in April 2025 under Section 301 of the Trade Act. The policy imposes phased-in port entry fees on foreign vessels operated by Chinese entities or built in Chinese shipyards as part of a broader response to industrial subsidies and trade distortions in China’s maritime sector.

Using 2024 vessel traffic and export data, ARPC researchers estimate that these fees would have increased shipping costs by $2.3 billion that year, with annual costs rising to $6.2 billion by 2028 under the full fee schedule.

U.S. agricultural exports, especially bulk shipments of corn, soybeans and wheat, are among the most affected. These commodities are typically transported by dry bulk vessels, many of which fall under the scope of the new fees.

“Even with exemptions for short routes and empty vessel arrivals, dry bulk exporters face real exposure,” said Jiyeon Kim, lead author and research economist at ARPC. “The policy increases per-unit costs at the port level, and those effects are likely to be passed down to producers in the form of lower farmgate prices.”

The report finds that the cost of the Annex 1 fees alone could amount to five to seven cents per bushel for key grain exports, corresponding to fee burdens between 0.6% and 0.8% of the total export value for these commodities.

The analysis also shows that while the final rule is more limited in scope than the original February 2025 proposal, agricultural exporters continue to bear a disproportionate share of the impact.

“This is not a marginal policy change for the agricultural sector,” said co-author Matthew Gammans. “The way the fees are structured (based on vessel tonnage and port calls) means that high-volume, low-value shipments like grain are particularly vulnerable.”

The report also highlights that policy-induced cost increases could undermine the global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture, especially in markets where margins are already tight. Although some vessels may shift to alternative flags or construction sources in response, such transitions take time and depend on broader global shipping capacity.

Read the full white paper online.