NDSU research looks at climate change and food price inflation

A newly published study in Choices Magazine, co-authored by a researcher at NDSU’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Matthew Gammans, examines the extent to which climate change has driven food price inflation.

The study finds that although climate change impacts agricultural producers significantly, its role in recent food price increases in developed countries has been modest.

The research analyzes cost components along the food supply chain, from farm production to food service, and estimates that past climate change has increased consumer food prices by only 2.2% to 6.7% over the past 50 years. By contrast, food prices in U.S. cities rose over 53% between 2010 and 2024.

“Climate change has the potential to have a profound effect of individual farmers but has not been a major driver of recent grocery price inflation,” said Gammans. “Our analysis shows that other factors have had a far greater influence on the rise in consumer food prices we’ve seen in recent decades.”

The researchers caution that future warming beyond 2 C threatens global food security, especially in developing countries where agriculture plays a dominant economic role.

Read the full paper online. For additional information, contact Gammans at matthew.gammans@ndsu.edu.