NDSU economist presents Q4 2022 economic forecast for North Dakota

FARGO, N.D., Nov. 8 – Today, Jeremy Jackson presented an updated Economic Outlook Quarterly Report at the 2022 State of the Economy virtual conference.

Jackson is director of the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise and professor of economics at North Dakota State University. He created the North Dakota Forecast Model, which is used to generate a quarterly forecast for the regional economy.

The report includes economic forecasts for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metro areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. Earlier this year, a forecast was added for Minnesota and the Minneapolis metro area.

Here are some key points from the Economic Outlook: Q4 2022 report:

  • The North Dakota outlook is overall positive. Wages and salaries and gross state product are forecast to grow, and tax collections remain strong. A recent decline in the labor force may be cause for concern.

  • The economic outlooks for Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks, and Minneapolis are positive. Wages, labor force participation, and housing prices are projected to grow in the metro areas.

  • The Minnesota economic outlook remains mixed. Trends in wages, labor force, and gross state product show possibility for growth or decline. Tax collections remain volatile.

  • The national economy had its first quarter of economic growth in 2022 and is showing signs of a possible recovery. However, other indicators suggest a recession may still be coming.

  • This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run on October 27, 2022. These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

Read the full report.

“The North Dakota outlook continues to do well,” said Jackson. “Forecasts show increasing wages and salaries and a low unemployment rate, but a downward dip in the labor force is troubling for a state that needs workers.”

The State of the Economy virtual conference presents science-based outlooks for the state’s economy and agriculture and energy industries. To access videos of the presentations, register at https://www.ndsu.edu/centers/pcpe/state_of_the_economy/

About the North Dakota Forecast Model

The North Dakota Forecast Model uses historical data and trends to predict future economic outcomes for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. As of May 2022, the model also includes outlooks for the state of Minnesota and the Minneapolis, MN, metro area. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment and the housing price index. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model. The model for the Q3 2022 report used data available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve on October 27, 2022.

The views expressed in this report do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.


Kali Christianson, Communication Coordinator
701.231.7790  /  kali.l.christianson@ndsu.edu 



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