The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy. Many predict the United States will experience an economic downturn alongside a historic increase in unemployment. These factors alone suggest concern for the North Dakota economy. Moreover, these events are coinciding with a collapse in oil prices, a critical source of revenue for the state of North Dakota. This report details the possible effect of expected increases in national unemployment and a decrease in oil prices on the North Dakota economy. We use the North Dakota Forecast Model to estimate a series of scenarios. The model predicts North Dakota will experience a decrease in salaries and wages, a decrease in the labor force, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decrease in gross state product, and a decrease in total tax collections.

• The North Dakota outlook shows signs of economic decline in the coming months, including reduced wages, declining labor force participation, rising unemployment, and significant decreases in gross state product and total tax collections. Similar effects can be seen for the metro areas.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run in July 2020. (For some series, the most recently available data is from 2019.) These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

• To see updated forecasts that incorporate economic shocks in national unemployment and falling oil prices, read the Economic Outlook Special Report: A forecast of the effect of COVID-19 on North Dakota. 

• Due to the use of historical data and lags in the model, this forecast does not include recent changes to economic conditions brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run in April 2020. (For some series, the most recently available data is from 2019.) These forecasts serve as a baseline for how the economy was projected to grow before the economic shocks brought on by the pandemic.

• To see updated forecasts that incorporate economic shocks in national unemployment and falling oil prices, read the Economic Outlook Special Report: A forecast of the effect of COVID-19 on North Dakota.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.