• Economic forecasts for North Dakota show a state that is approaching a possible recovery from economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

• Over the forecast time period, increases are expected for total wages and salaries, the labor force, gross state product, and total tax collections.

• The unemployment rate shows the possibility of increasing, demonstrating lingering difficulties in the labor market.

• Similar effects can be seen for the metro areas, with variances between different regions of the state. Detailed forecasts and summaries for Fargo, ND-MN, Bismarck, ND, and Grand Forks, ND-MN, are included in the quarterly report. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy. Many predict the United States will experience an economic downturn alongside a historic increase in unemployment. These factors alone suggest concern for the North Dakota economy. Moreover, these events are coinciding with a collapse in oil prices, a critical source of revenue for the state of North Dakota. This report details the possible effect of expected increases in national unemployment and a decrease in oil prices on the North Dakota economy. We use the North Dakota Forecast Model to estimate a series of scenarios. The model predicts North Dakota will experience a decrease in salaries and wages, a decrease in the labor force, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decrease in gross state product, and a decrease in total tax collections.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.