The Economic Outlook quarterly report uses the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by the NDSU Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise to predict economic trends for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. The model uses past trends and empirical relationships in data to predict (forecast) future trends. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment, and the housing price index. Like all forecast models, this method faces limitations and the specific values in the forecast should not be direct cause for decision-making. Rather, forecasting provides information about what is possible and can help establish expectations. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model.

• The North Dakota outlook shows signs of economic recovery and growth for 2022. This includes growth for wages and salaries in the state, as well as a growing labor force, decreasing unemployment, and strong total tax collections. Gross state product is looking weak in the coming quarters but should move back to growth in the middle of 2022.

• The economic outlook for North Dakota’s metro areas is positive, with wages and the labor force forecast to grow in Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run in December 2021. These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.