The Economic Outlook quarterly report uses the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by the NDSU Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise to predict economic trends for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. As of May 2022, the model includes forecasts for the state of Minnesota and the Minneapolis, MN, metro area. The model uses past trends and empirical relationships in data to predict (forecast) future trends. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment, and the housing price index. Like all forecast models, this method faces limitations and the specific values in the forecast should not be direct cause for decision-making. Rather, forecasting provides information about what is possible and can help establish expectations. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model.

• The North Dakota outlook continues to improve with signs of economic growth in 2022. This includes growth for wages and salaries in the state, as well as a growing labor force, decreasing unemployment rates, strong total tax collections, and rising gross state product.

• The economic outlooks for Fargo, Bismarck, and Grand Forks are positive.

• The Minnesota economic outlook is mixed, while the outlook for Minneapolis is positive.

• The national economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 and shows signs of entering a recession.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run on April 28, 2022. These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.