The Economic Outlook quarterly report uses the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by the NDSU Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise to predict economic trends for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. As of May 2022, the model includes forecasts for the state of Minnesota and the Minneapolis, MN, metro area. The model uses past trends and empirical relationships in data to predict (forecast) future trends. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment, and the housing price index. Like all forecast models, this method faces limitations and the specific values in the forecast should not be direct cause for decision-making. Rather, forecasting provides information about what is possible and can help establish expectations. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model.

• The North Dakota outlook continues to do well despite lackluster national trends. However, a recent decline in the labor force may be cause for concern. Growth trends are predicted for wages and salaries and gross state product. Tax collections remain strong.

• The economic outlooks for Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks, and Minneapolis are positive.

• The Minnesota economic outlook remains mixed. Trends in wages, labor force, and gross state product show possibility for growth or decline. Tax collections remain volatile.

• The national economy is showing signs that a recovery could be coming. However, the risk of recession still looms.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run on October 27, 2022. These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.