• The North Dakota outlook shows a growing labor force and increases in gross state product with total tax collections remaining steady. However, there are signs of lingering difficulties in the labor market as total wages and salaries are projected to decrease and the unemployment rate may rise.

• The Bismarck metro area has a positive outlook while both Fargo and Grand Forks show signs of struggling to rebound from the pandemic economy. Detailed forecasts and summaries for Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN; can be found in the quarterly report. 

• These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends. As a result, unexpected changes in economic conditions, public policy or other factors may disrupt the accuracy of the forecasts.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy. Many predict the United States will experience an economic downturn alongside a historic increase in unemployment. These factors alone suggest concern for the North Dakota economy. Moreover, these events are coinciding with a collapse in oil prices, a critical source of revenue for the state of North Dakota. This report details the possible effect of expected increases in national unemployment and a decrease in oil prices on the North Dakota economy. We use the North Dakota Forecast Model to estimate a series of scenarios. The model predicts North Dakota will experience a decrease in salaries and wages, a decrease in the labor force, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decrease in gross state product, and a decrease in total tax collections.

The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.