Economic Outlook

Quarterly Reports

Economic Outlook: Q1 2021

North Dakota Forecast Model  |  Released February 2021

Full Report

Key Points
  • Economic forecasts for North Dakota show a state that is approaching a possible recovery from economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
  • Over the forecast time period, increases are expected for total wages and salaries, the labor force, gross state product, and total tax collections.
  • The unemployment rate shows the possibility of increasing, demonstrating lingering difficulties in the labor market.
  • Similar effects can be seen for the metro areas, with variances between different regions of the state. Detailed forecasts and summaries for Fargo, ND-MN, Bismarck, ND, and Grand Forks, ND-MN, are included in the quarterly report. 

Economic Outlook: Special Report

A forecast of the effect of COVID-19 on North Dakota  |  Updated August 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy. Many predict the United States will experience an economic downturn alongside a historic increase in unemployment. These factors alone suggest concern for the North Dakota economy. Moreover, these events are coinciding with a collapse in oil prices, a critical source of revenue for the state of North Dakota. This report details the possible effect of expected increases in national unemployment and a decrease in oil prices on the North Dakota economy. We use the North Dakota Forecast Model to estimate a series of scenarios. The model predicts North Dakota will experience a decrease in salaries and wages, a decrease in the labor force, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decrease in gross state product, and a decrease in total tax collections.


Previous Reports

Economic Outlook: Q4 2020

Released November 2020

Economic Outlook: Q3 2020

Released August 2020

Economic Outlook: Q2 2020

Released April 2020


The views expressed in these reports belong to the researchers and do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.

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