FARGO, N.D., August 17 – The Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise has released an updated Economic Outlook Quarterly Report using the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, director of the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise and professor of economics at North Dakota State University.

The report includes economic forecasts for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metro areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. Earlier this year, a forecast was added for Minnesota and the Minneapolis metro area.

Here are some key points from the Economic Outlook: Q3 2022 report:

• North Dakota’s economy continues to show signs of economic growth in 2022. Forecasts show increasing wages and salaries, a low unemployment rate and a growing labor force. Despite recent declines, the outlook for gross state product and tax collections remains strong.

• The economic outlooks for Fargo, Grand Forks and Minneapolis are positive, while the current outlook for Bismarck is neutral.

• The Minnesota economic outlook remains mixed with some signs of declining growth. The unemployment rate has continued to fall, but this trend is expected to reverse. The labor force is forecast to see mild growth, while total wages and salaries, gross state product and tax collections are forecast to decline in the coming quarters.

• The national economy shrank in the first two quarters of 2022, and this trend is forecast to continue. Additional signs point to a possible recession. Consumption, net investment and corporate profits are expected to decline alongside rising unemployment and prices.

• This report represents forecasts based on the most recently available data when the model was run on August 11, 2022. These forecasts serve as a projection for how the economy will respond to current economic conditions based on historical data and trends.

Read the full report.

“North Dakota’s economy is showing potential for growth,” said Jackson. “This is despite increasing signs that the national economy may be turning toward a recession.”

About the North Dakota Forecast Model

The North Dakota Forecast Model uses historical data and trends to predict future economic outcomes for the state of North Dakota and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Fargo, ND-MN; Bismarck, ND; and Grand Forks, ND-MN. As of May 2022, the model also includes outlooks for the state of Minnesota and the Minneapolis, MN, metro area. These forecasts focus on key economic indicators such as wage growth, labor force participation, unemployment and the housing price index. The Economic Outlook report is released each quarter with updated data from the forecast model. The model for the Q3 2022 report used data available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve on August 11, 2022.

The views expressed in this report do not represent the views of North Dakota State University.

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Contact

Kali Christianson, Communication Coordinator
701.231.7790  /  kali.l.christianson@ndsu.edu