U.S. beef production and use by the numbers

Jon T. Biermacher, NDSU Professor of Practice and Extension Livestock Development Specialist | October 2026

Over the past several months, I have been hearing via radio, television, internet and social media outlets a mixture of varying perspectives on U.S. beef production, who buys and consumes it. Sadly, many of these perspectives fall outside the boundaries of the data that we have, which we use to understand domestic beef production and how it’s used. Given all the noise around these varying perspectives, I thought it would be a good idea to go through the data we have and provide some insights.

To begin, let’s take a look at the September estimates for the end-of-year (Dec. 31, 2026) U.S. beef supply and use that are reported by the USDA (Table 1). The data are from the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report published on Sept. 11 by the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, which can be found at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf.

The supply side of the data reflects estimates for three things: one, beginning stocks of 577 million pounds of beef that were carried over from 2025; two, total U.S. beef production of 24.9 billion pounds; and three, imports of roughly 6.3 billion pounds of beef products, which are mostly comprised of lean beef cuts (to be processed into hamburger) and already processed lean trim. These three sources combined provide for a grand total estimate of 31.8 billion pounds of beef available for U.S. consumption through the end of 2026. Out of the 25.5 billion pounds of beef produced (excluding imports), the USDA estimates that 2.3 billion pounds of beef (9.2%) will be exported to our international trade partners, and 565 million pounds of the U.S. beef supply is expected to be carried over for use in 2027 (about 1.8% of the U.S. beef supply).

Using the supply and use data reported in Table 1, several key metrics were calculated to help address some of the misinformation circulating in the grapevine these days. Before I dive into those numbers, it is important to note that governments are not the agents that buy and sell beef products; it is private companies (U.S. and foreign) that buy and sell (trade) beef products between countries. Government policies can and do affect trade and prices, but individual private companies are the key agents trading beef products with one another.

On several occasions, I have heard or read that U.S. meat companies export the bulk of our highest-quality beef products and then import low-quality beef back into the country. In fact, though, out of the 25.5 billion pounds of beef expected to be produced in the U.S. in 2026, only 9.2% (or about 2.3 billion pounds) will be exported to our trade partners, with about 20% (469 million pounds) going to our closest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Conversely, then, this data reveals that U.S. consumers are expected to purchase and consume almost all (91%) of the entire U.S. supply of beef in 2026 — a percentage, give or take two to three percentage points, that has remained fairly constant over the past several decades.

As mentioned above, the U.S. meat industry is expected to export 2.3 billion pounds of muscle meat and edible offal and variety meats in 2026. Tracked separately by the USDA, the U.S. beef industry is expected produce about 1 billion pounds of edible offal and variety meats (hearts, livers, tongues, tails, kidneys, etc.) in 2026, which is about 4% of total beef production, and it will export roughly 25% (586 million pounds) of total variety meat production to countries that have a preference for variety meats and countries that continue to add protein to their diets as their incomes rise. The remaining 1.3 billion pounds of offal and variety meat not exported are mostly used in the production of animal feed (pet food, food for fish farms, etc.), with lesser amounts sold to consumers as processed meats (bologna, hot dogs, etc.). The sale (credit) of variety meats and other products from harvested byproducts (the “drop,” such as hides, bones, etc.) helps provide income streams back to the U.S. beef industry.

The other 75% of the estimated 2026 U.S. beef exports (1.9 billion pounds) are mostly comprised of muscle cuts that international buyers pay very high premiums for each year, especially for prime cuts that are of very high quality. In addition to finding their way to wealthier households, a good deal of these high-quality beef products end up in high-end restaurants, foreign-owned cruise ships and vacation resorts located across the globe. Note that companies that can market high-quality beef products to international consumers help support and create new demand for high-quality beef genetics and the finished calves produced from those genetics on our nation’s beef cattle farms and ranches.

Lastly, expected 2026 imports, as a percent of beginning stocks and total production, equals 25% (i.e., 6.26 billion pounds out of 25.5 billion pounds). This figure excludes imports that would be affected by the potential trade deal announced by the White House on Aug. 29, 2026, which would allow an additional 660 million pounds of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. Based on recent reports, it appears this deal will not happen in 2026. However, the possibility of importing an additional 660 million pounds of lean trim was considered in this publication’s calculations, and the results suggest that it would only increase imports as a percent of total U.S. production by about 2%, moving it from 25% to 27%. The impact of this relatively small change in beef imports on the price of weaned calves at the sale barn is expected to be negligible.

I, like many, agree that announcements of sporadic beef trade policies (and others like it) coming out of Washington have an off-putting, erratic effect on the cattle futures markets; however, they do not impact the fundamental principles of economics that impact the market price of calves and yearlings out in the country. Continue to focus on the fundamentals and try to avoid all the noise.

Contact me with any questions at jon.biermacher@ndsu.edu.