Export sales provide key information about price trends

Frayne Olson, NDSU Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist | November 2026

The crop markets are transitioning away from a focus on U.S. production levels and towards domestic consumption and export volumes. Attention is shifting towards how quickly U.S. supplies will be used up.

There are three major categories of crop usage that the USDA tracks throughout the year: feed usage, domestic processing for food and industrial uses, and exports. Feed usage is typically the most difficult to accurately track on a weekly or monthly basis. A large volume of feed grains is produced and consumed on the same farm and is never recorded as a purchase or sale. The USDA relies on quarterly grain stocks surveys and meat production reports to estimate the amount of grain used for feed.

Domestic processing for food and industrial uses is easier to track because the number and capacity of processing facilities are known and can be surveyed on a regular basis. Domestic processing volumes are relatively stable over time and can be adjusted for seasonal patterns. This makes it more reliable to project total domestic processing quantities.

However, accurately forecasting export levels is very difficult. Changing global supply and demand conditions, shifting trade relationships, transportation and supply chain disruptions, and military conflicts can quickly alter trade flows and global prices. As a result, unexpected changes in U.S. export levels, either higher or lower, can quickly impact crop price trends.

Each week, the USDA provides updated information on the most recent U.S. export sales and export inspections. Both of these reports provide information to the marketplace that can influence price expectations.

The USDA Export Sales Report is released every Thursday morning. It summarizes the volume of U.S. grain sold under contract for delivery later, categorized by grain type and country. It does not identify specific companies but lists the country where the grain will be delivered. If an export sale exceeds 100,000 metric tons and is to a single country, it must be reported within 24 hours.

In contrast, the Grains Inspected for Export report summarizes the volume of grain, by type, that has been weighed and inspected for export. This report provides information on the amount of grain leaving the U.S to specific countries. It provides a reference for the amount of grain moving through the export channels each week.

One of the most common questions I get during crop marketing meetings is how to know when a price trend will change. If prices are trending downward, when will a low be established and prices begin to increase? Or, if prices are increasing, how high will they go before turning lower?

Unfortunately, there is no clear and consistent answer to these questions. Many people have developed very sophisticated techniques trying to make consistent predictions. To my knowledge, no one has been successful yet.

However, I do often point to the export sales data as a guidepost. Once again, export sales reports indicate when an international buyer has purchased more U.S. crops. If prices are falling, the incentive to purchase U.S. crops increases. A downward price trend often turns higher after a large export sale is announced. Similarly, if U.S. crop prices are increasing, it is not unusual to see new export sales slow or even stop. This signals to the U.S. that prices are too high relative to other suppliers, and prices will likely fall.

Given this background, let’s look at current U.S. export sales data relative to history. Table 1 shows current and historical U.S. corn export sales for the top five importing countries, plus China, ranked by sales in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The four columns on the left of the table report total exports for the full marketing year. The two columns on the right show the year-to-date export sales for the current marketing year on the far right and for the same period last marketing year. The row labeled ROW represents the “rest of world,” or all other countries combined.

Table 1 – U.S. Corn Export Sales by Destination Country (1,000 metric tons)

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Sales Custom Query.

The 2025/2026 marketing year was the largest corn export year on record, at 86.0 million metric tons. Mexico and Japan are usually the top two export destinations for U.S. corn. Sales to both countries increased in 2025/2026 over previous years, but the largest increase was in the ROW category. This shows there is demand for U.S. corn in a broad range of countries, if U.S. prices are competitive in the global market. There are also comments by market analysts that China may purchase U.S. corn as part of its agreement to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. ag products. It is still unclear whether this will happen.

Table 2 shows the U.S. soybean export sales, by country, for the top seven importing countries. The table data is presented in the same format as Table 1 for corn.

Table 2 – U.S. Soybean Export Sales by Destination Country (1,000 metric tons)

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Sales Custom Query.

China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, including last year when Chinese purchases were impacted by a trade war between the two countries. Mexico is typically the second-largest importer, with Egypt taking third place last marketing year. Year-to-date sales this year have recovered from last year and returned to more typical levels. Chinese purchases are similar to nontrade war levels and are expected to remain near average.

Table 3 - U.S. All Wheat Export Sales by Destination Country (1,000 metric tons)

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Sales Custom Query.

Table 3 summarizes the export sales by country for all classes of wheat. Mexico has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. wheat, with the Philippines and Japan the second- and third-largest. This year’s wheat export sales are below last year’s pace but similar to the 2022/2023 marketing year. Export sales to major U.S. customers are similar to last year, but sales in the ROW category are slower than last year.