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Weather Forecast (05/12/22)

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More rain likely occurred overnight with more expected today (Thursday, May 12).  With some severe weather also anticipated that will mean some localized heavy pockets of rain.  This will continue to delay any opportunity to begin planting in 2022 for most areas.  This past week all NDAWN (North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network) stations recorded some rain with many areas in eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota recording over 1 inch    (Figure 1).

Figure 1.   Total rainfall for the 168-hour period ending at 12:11 PM on May 11, 2022 at NDAWN stations

Once the storm over the region today (Thursday) moves out most areas should record minimal rain through the middle of next week.  There will be shower activity during some afternoons, but no big rains are expected.  The key to drying off may come at the end of next week as there may be one last bigger, widespread rain event until the pattern shifts more permanently as we end the month of May. 

Figures 2 and 3 are forecasted estimates of Growing Degree Days base 32° and 50°.  Because of the rain and cooler temperatures behind this storm, most days will record below average temperatures this period.

Figure 2.  Estimated growing degree days base 32° for the period of May 12 to May 18, 2022.
Figure 3.   Estimated growing degree days base 50° for the period of May 12 to May 18, 2022.

Soil temperatures at 4 inches have reached the 50° range across the region.  During the afternoon temperatures get even warmer, but we have reached that point in the season when even near sunrise, the soil temperatures just below the surface are still around that 50° level in most parts of the region (Figure 4).

Figure 4.   Soil temperatures at 4” depth under bare soil at NDAWN stations near sunrise on May 11, 2022.

For the many of you that have asked, yes, I still see many reasons why this summer will turn dry.  It will be unlikely that we are as warm as 2021, but above average temperatures are still expected as well.

 

Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN)